When the Mosaic District had the official grand opening last year (with the opening of Angelika Theater) we wondered whether the community would embrace the unique look and store selection at the retail center. Were Merrifield and the surrounding communities interested in an Indie-theater and boutique shop formats, an unproven genre of retail in this part of Central Fairfax.
Within a few months those questions have been answered with a resounding yes, as anyone who travels to Mosaic on a Friday or Saturday (or Tuesday for that matter) can see by the droves of customers in stores as variant as Paper Source and Target. The occupancy of the office center added more potential customers, especially for lunch venues like Sweetgreen.
The first phase of Mosaic has been, by all measures, a success for the community, the developer, and the County but will the next phase, which focuses more on residential land use, be as well absorbed?
In our first look at Mosaic we noted that the site is not necessarily walkable to the Dunn Loring metro. One could do it, but it doesn’t represent the typical 1/4 mile concept that most denote as a Transit-Oriented Criteria. Of course it is served by express bus service from several systems, including the 401/402, which provides a 5 minute ride to metro, so it isn’t as if it is a SOV-prioritized community by any means either.
With so many options coming to the market within a 2 minute walk of metro stations (Dunn Loring metro itself has nearly 1000 units coming onto the market on the property) will Mosaic developers attain the residential occupancy they are looking for? Will the rental price for these units reflect their adjacency to the Mosaic Town Center as the upside or will the price have to reflect the downside of being off location from metro.
Reston Town Center may provide some indication as to the market that could be found at a location that doesn’t have direct metro access. Because of the town concept Reston has been capable of retaining higher than typical rental rates. The attractiveness of living in the Town Center itself is balancing the lessened marketability of indirect transit access. What this means is that Mosaic will likely not be capable of charging Alexandria or Arlington rates (as with those markets you see both adjacent retail amenities as well as direct transit).
Ultimately, the indoor amenities of the apartments themselves will not have much sway on pricing. High-end finishes, on-site recreational facilities, and other luxury amenities may sway the price a few hundred dollars per month either way. This is especially true given the fact that almost every new rental unit coming onto the market today has these elements as a standard.
I believe Mosaic will likely find itself with similar apartment rates as Reston. While Mosaic does not yet have the retail strength of Reston, it does have the benefit of 5 minute access to metro. Given that price level for apartments, Mosaic could be quite successful in attracting residents who prioritize commute ease but still want a variety of night life and weekend entertainment choices.
In the $1600 for 1-bedroom to $2300 for 2-bedroom range Mosaic’s residential apartments should have no problem finding prospective residents. If the prices were higher, for instance $2000 for a 1-br and $2800 for a 2-br, it would begin to compete with a price range that one sees in areas like Arlington and Alexandria, which I don’t believe would be a successful strategy. It is unlikely that the apartment prices will be less than $1600-2300 as there are no new apartment developments inside of the beltway charging less than this price.
Overall, the residential component to Mosaic will be a big step forward for the businesses which have set up in the retail center. The additional 1500 residents will provide a consistent customer base for groceries, restaurants, and shops which will only add to the existing base of employees and destination shoppers. Whether the residential development itself will be successful is dependent on accurate and realistic pricing by the developers and the emergence of other residential developments around the region.