May 31st, 2012 marks a day when residents of the Tysons region were confronted with what could happen if citizen stewardship was not responsible for oversight of the urbanization plans. Without a local voice Tysons, Vienna, and McLean will remain powerless to regional improvements, such as new Dulles Toll Road ramps, which endanger the safety of existing neighborhoods. The point should not be to oppose advances in our region, but to review the negative and positive impacts of such improvements. While the Boone Boulevard ramp would help commuters avoid Route 7, it also contradicts the key principal of the Comprehensive Plan, to keep Route 7 and 123 as vehicular corridors and all others for residents and non-vehicular uses by priority. Two hundred residents, and one developer in JGB, stood united in pointing out this contradiction and successfully requiring FCDOT and VDOT to reanalyze the project’s scope.
The new fight that appears to be forming in the burgeoning Route 7 corridor is antagonism against the new Tysons West Wal-Mart, which has been blamed for everything from creating traffic disruptions during construction to triggering the need for the Dulles Toll Road ramp… yes the same one that they directly opposed. Clearly in this case the stigma of Wal-Mart may be causing greater concern than would be typical. Is it fair?
Transportation
The question is rhetorical clearly and the answer is empirically obvious. It does not take a very exhaustive google search to find cases around our region where new grocery stores are celebrated as filling a gap in food deserts and providing shopping alternatives. Therefore the real question becomes will this Wal-Mart act and look like a grocery store?One of the largest problems that can occur in an urban region is a lack of groceries and produce that can create food deserts and requiring resident’s to modify their dietary habits with negative effects. Typically regions of a city lacking a grocery store within walk range carry lower values than those with adjacent grocers similar to transit availability. The urban Wal-Mart in concept is attempting to fill this role. Instead of the 150,000 square foot Super Wal-Mart model the company is pushing a new smaller grocery centralized retail concept. Which leads us to ask, would this kind of animosity exist if a Safeway, Wegmans, or Whole Foods was planned?
One of the largest impacts that a new Wal-Mart can create is an extensive field of asphalt that can range from 400 to just under 1000 parking spaces. Entrances (of which there are typically 2 and 1 service entrance) often become pinch points spilling over into local roads. Due to the massive inventory of the typical Wal-Mart it becomes a destination for customers from a much larger overall region who require everything from new tires, garden supplies, hand tools, and groceries.
The Tysons West Wal-Mart to its credit looks to avoid these nuisances. The parking lot is very environmentally sensitive as it is not only being provided within a parking garage, but is also recycling the existing parking garage. The parking garage will connect to the grid of streets around the project leading back to Route 123 and of course is directly adjacent to Route 7, both of which are well over-sized for the amount of traffic generated by a Wal-Mart. These two major roads are used to handling commuters in the 10s of thousands per hour during the morning and evening rush. This Wal-Mart, whose customers would not be during this same rush, would be creating one of two orders of magnitude less traffic than these office uses. The argument that Route 7 must be widened because of the Wal-Mart, an actual statement being made by some who oppose the project, is not grounded in fact and statistical driving patterns.
Lastly, the concept itself creates a whole new pattern than what a typical Wal-Mart creates. This is a grocery central store, it will not be carrying the massive and diverse inventory of a standard Wal-Mart. This becomes integral in understanding why the traffic impact will be far less with this store as it no longer becomes a weekend errand destination. Additionally, this location is unlikely to become a grocery destination for those who lack a Wal-Mart in their neighborhood. It wouldn’t make sense for someone in McLean to jump in a car and drive 7 miles while passing 4 other grocery stores in order to shop at Wal-Mart specifically. The urban grocery concept in this way is really supported in majority by the customer base that is within walking distances or those who would not pass a grocery store within driving distance to the location.
Retail Diversity
I have opposed Wal-Mart in the past because of the impact a new Wal-Mart has on retail diversity in a region. Dozens of studies have shown that a new Wal-Mart typically signals the end of the traditional main street and small family business. NPR carried a story this past week on credit leasers in retail space, big box stores with the ability to sign long term leases and pay premiums that small businesses simply cant and are preferentially included by new developments. In many ways this is an apt argument against urban Wal-Marts. I have formerly worked on Wal-Mart projects as a site civil engineer, and one thing I know about Wal-Mart is a new development is only part of their process and expansions are always a possibility. My fear over this project is that the urban Wal-Mart today might become the sprawl Wal-Mart of tomorrow. This of course is unfounded by any actions of JGB or Wal-Mart so far.
Until any expansion occurs, I think it would be unfair to say that this Wal-Mart will impede retail fairness. In groceries it is difficult to find a price advantage based on freight efficiency in urban settings, therefore prices will likely be in line with other grocery options. The city will be growing very quickly and a population of 100,000 would traditionally require between 10 to 20 grocery stores. Currently Tysons has three groceries (5 if you include the Trader Joes and Whole Foods outside of the city limits). This new grocery store should not impede innovation in other locations for local or other franchise grocery options.
Economic Impact
The same dozen or so major studies that empirically showed detriment imposed on main street establishments by new Wal-Marts also found economic hardship incurred from new retail location. Often the collapse of the traditional retail caused many higher paying jobs to be shifted to lower paying positions or lost all together. While consumers in these typically rural locations found short term cost savings, the eventual effect on the town became less competition and less jobs.
This is what has happened to many rural locations, but to apply this to an urban location with over 100,000 corporate positions would be a mistake. In fact this project comes not only with this Wal-Mart but new residential units as well as new office space and because of its integration and mixed nature will likely spur new economic growth. In retail foot traffic is goal #1, which is why retail projects anchored by groceries are traditionally the most successful. Combine the grocery and diverse retail that will be created from the project and it is not difficult to see that office and residential spaces will be highly sought after and reliable sources of tax revenue for the County.
Wal-Mart comes with stigmas but before we demonize this project us residents should realize that it provides far greater benefits than detriment. Oversight, cooperation, and communication will be important moving forward with JGB who has shown they are looking to be a partner in improving Tysons Corner. Most importantly, when there are so many opponents to what is occurring in Tysons Corner from those who live outside of the region and see it as a paycheck, we as a community must unify as a voice to oppose projects and plans that contradict the best interests of residents and find common ground with developers who take seriously their stewardship positions.