One of the most common arguments against land use planning which incorporates multi-family and townhome development is that most people do not want to live in small units, and that most families are too large to live in anything but single family housing. Statistically speaking, in Fairfax, it is true that the majority of households will ultimately want a single family house, but that doesn’t mean that everyone prefers that housing type. In our previous post we looked at how current land use trends in Fairfax are affecting rural preservation in outer suburbs.
There are 181,000 single family housing (SFH) dwellings in Fairfax. There are 83,000 townhouse (TH) dwellings in Fairfax. There are 93,000 multi-family (MF) dwellings in Fairfax. The population split is 705,000 residents in SFH, 224,000 in TH, and 151,000 in MF. That shows that the majority of residents do live in houses or townhouses, a dynamic that will not change in the future, but are there enough townhomes and multi-family units to address the actual need today and in the future?
Single Life
In Fairfax 75,000 residents live alone. This is a population of people who often want to live closer to urban areas. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that 80% would like MF, 15% would like TH, and 5% would like SFH.
2-Person Shared Cohabitants
In Fairfax 18,500 shared cohabitant dwellings have two persons, these are often unmarried couples or young professionals living with friends. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that 80% would like MF, and 20% would like TH. Why 0% towards SFH? All things being equal, partnering to purchase or rent a whole house between two people is likely a rarity with non-related cohabitants.
2-Person Families
In Fairfax 96,500 dwellings have 2-person families, often married couples or single parents. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that 50% would like MF, 35% would like TH, and 15% want SFH. The majority of this population are young couples, early in their careers, a significant number of whom are renters or want urban lifestyles.
3-Person Shared Cohabitants
In Fairfax 3,400 shared cohabitant dwellings have three persons, the vast majority of which are young professional living with friends. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that 50% would like MF, 30% would like TH, and 20% would like SFH. The majority of these residents are again younger and will likely prefer urban locations over suburban locations.
3-Person Families
In Fairfax 58,600 dwellings have 3-person families, often young married couples with 1 child or unmarried with 2 children. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that these families are slightly older than 2-person families and therefore will be less likely to want urban lifestyles and desire more space with a slight preference to easy commuting. Therefore 5% would like MF, 40% would like TH, and the majority 55% would like SFH.
Larger than 3-Person Families
The vast majority of current Fairfax resident’s are larger families. These are residents who will not be capable of living in urban areas due to space requirements (or atleast statistically that population will not be significant). Some may be ok with townhomes. Let’s make a reasonable assumption that 0% would like MF, 20% would like TH, and 80% would like SFH.
The above analysis equates to a desired housing mix in Fairfax of 128,000 MF units, 93,500 TH units, and 132,500 SFH units.
As noted at the beginning of this analysis there are in reality 93,000 MF, 83,000 TH, and 181,000 SFH. In other words there is a deficiency in the number of multi-family units and townhomes in Fairfax while there is a significant glut of single family homes. This is observable in market conditions, as single family housing prices in Fairfax have remained flat or negative since 2006 while townhomes have seen a 10% rise in sales price, and multi-family units have seen a 18% rise in sales price.
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